Final Sr. Seminar Blog

At the beginning of this course I had pretty much no plans as far as exactly what I want to do in the future.  I knew that I wanted to fly but I had no idea of in what capacity.  I am still open to any opportunities that come my way however, I have a more defined route that I would like to take at least to begin with.  I plan on completing my CFI and getting a position somewhere to build my hours that way.  I would like to become a CFII and eventually an MEI as well.  I figure that the best way to learn is to teach, along with that I would like to stay at least somewhat close to my family while I do so.  This is my reasoning for why I would like to go along this route to begin with. 

A lot of the things that we discussed in class and on the blog where things that I was mostly in the dark about.  I never truly kept up to date with aviation news, however over the course of this semester, partially due to this class I have familiarized myself much more with the aviation industry and the current hot topics going on.  This has greatly increased my knowledge about my future plans as well as my discussions on these blogs. 

I would have to say my favorite/most interested blog topic this semester was NextGen.  I found that it will most likely have the biggest influence over my career as a pilot and it will be a huge change for the aviation sector.  I found it very informative and drastically altered my idea's about how the future of airspace in the U.S. will be operated.  The least favorite/least interesting blog topic was about the GA sector in China.  Although I learned a lot about what is going on in China and the vast increase in occurring in GA in China currently it is not something that I am interested in as I do not plan on going to China to fly.  It was helpful in taking notice the potential that it has and the changes that it can play on a global scale, however it was a dry topic for me personally.

I truly enjoyed all of the guest speakers.  I felt they all brought tremendous amounts of knowledge and helpfulness to us.  They were all prepared and more than willing to answer any questions as well as assist us beyond the classroom.  The speaker I feel I took the most away from was Aubrey.  I felt like she has gone out and created a path that most Eagle students don't (or at least that isn't talked about very often).  Corporate flying is also something that I have looked into quite a bit and I find it fascinating. 

As far as my future, I plan on flight instructing until I build hours to move on to something else.  What that something else is, I am not sure yet.  I wouldn't mind flying airlines, and I wouldn't flying corporate or anything else.  I plan to build my hours to where I have numerous opportunities and make my decision then.  Following graduation I plan on finding a position somewhere instructing.  I also plan on staying up-to-date with current aviation issues by way of magazines, and online sources.  Those are my professional plans for the future at this point in time. 

Implication's of the EU ETS in Aviation

The European Union (EU) adopted an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in 2005 that included industries such as factories, power plants, refineries and other businesses that emit large amounts of greenhouses.  It includes a cap or limit that companies have to abide by, and most of the allowances are given out for free at the present time.  At the end of the year each company has to pay the allowances and if their usage is above their allowance then there are heavy fines imposed on the company.  If however the allowance is below the companies emissions for the year they can either save what is leftover from their emissions or they can sell them to another company and make a profit off them. 


Currently those involved with the EU's ETS include the 27 member states of the EU as well as Iceland, Norway, and Liechtenstein.  This ETS has caused a lot of conflict politically worldwide due to the recent involvement of the aviation sector.  The Chinese are among those highly opposed to the EU ETS and have even threatened to recall their order from airbus as well as begin to impound all aircraft from Europe flying into China.  They are able to do this because their four main airlines are government funded.  The U.S. is also against the ETS and the reason China and the U.S. are so opposed to the scheme is that all airlines are required to pay for the flight over the entire trip.  So this does not simply include European airspace, but in fact all airspace in the world.  Therefore if a Delta flight is going from Detroit to Paris or London they would be required to pay for the emissions of the entire time that the aircraft is in flight, including over U.S. airspace. 

The United States is also in opposition of the EU ETS, as President Obama signed a bill recently that prevents U.S. airlines from having to pay into the EU ETS. Although it is unusual for the U.S. to pass a bill to prevent a company from complying with another nations laws it was something that the Senate unanimously passed.  It shows just how much the congress opposes the trading scheme set up in Europe.  A White house correspondent added that the Obama administration would like for the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to come up with a global solution. 

The EU has been in full support of the ETS until recently as they have stated they have delayed the application of the enforcement for 120 days until ICAO can come up with a plan of action.  The European Commission on Climate Change stated that Europe has been attempting to see some sort of aviation emission combatant action for more than 15 years.  ICAO has been resisting these attempts but it seems that they are out of time and must come up with some sort of solution to end this global issue. 

This begs the question, what will ICAO do?  The way I view it ICAO has a few options of how to approach this.  They could either back the EU and have the their ETS adopted globally, they could repeal the EU ETS and have no country be allowed to implement something that reaches beyond their infrastructure, or finally issue something different that they come up with in house.  If they choose to back the EU and adopt their way of ETS, every country would have to abide by those rules and would have a capacity allowance and be able to trade and sell allowances.  This would not be a popular solution and I feel like it would cause a lot of trouble between ICAO and the U.S. and China.  Especially now that the U.S. has passed a law not allowing U.S. air carriers to follow this scheme.  If ICAO repeals the EU ETS this would create a lot of problems between the EU and ICAO, especially with ICAO dragging its feet on any type of emissions solution for more than a decade and a half now.  The third option is for ICAO to come up with a solution that perhaps includes parts of what some countries are currently doing to reduce emissions, and some sort of new requirements such as making engines allowed to be used only so inefficient before requiring new equipment.  It surly will be interesting to see what ICAO comes up with. 

A big question is also, Is there a need for any sort of restricting emissions in the aviation world?  I believe there is a need for it.  I do not however believe the way the EU is going about it is fully for the environment, rather it is an attempt to boost the dwindling economy in Europe.  It is a way for the governments in Europe to begin earning more money through requiring companies to give more money.  I feel that there needs to be more attention put towards efficiency in research and development more than that of restricting a company's emissions they are putting out into the air.  Jet engines today lose about 70% of their thrust due to inefficiency.  That amount of inefficiency requires so much more fuel.  This would not only assist in reducing emissions but also in reducing costs for air carriers. 

NextGen System

The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) is basically a huge overhaul of the National Airspace System (NAS) and the way that it is manage, organized, and operated.  The NextGen has been partially implemented and is being added onto the NAS as it currently is.  The NextGen is built on four main foundations, which include the following: Economic Impact, Sustainability, Flexibility, and Safety.

To me the pillar that is most important would be Safety.  Safety for the reason that safety is and has always been the main mission of the FAA.  By them increasing what is already the safest air system in the world puts the U.S. even further ahead of the rest of the world.  If safety is not the main goal of NextGen, then it would be frivolous to implement it.  Safety should always be the top priority for every aviation company if it loses sight of that then it certainly will not succeed in the U.S.

The second pillar is the economic impact, which could arguably be the first pillar.  The aviation industry globally impacts the economic outlook for all countries.  The better the air traffic system, the better results for the economy.  According to the FAA civil aviation contributed $1.3 trillion annually to the economy, and accounted for 5.2% of the GDP for the U.S. in 2009.  NextGen is going to cut down on delays and create more efficient routes to take.  This will lead to a higher profit margin for any aviation company, as well as contribute more to the economy. 

The next pillar of NextGen is flexibility.  It is always important that when something is created it is susceptible to change  There are almost always unexpected consequences of something new that simply cannot be predicted without real-world testing.  NextGen needs to be flexible to adjust for any procedures or operations that end up being hazardous to the system. In addition to that, today the world changes really fast and especially technology.  Although NextGen is much more advanced than anything put in place for the NAS thus far, it is highly likely that an even more advanced technology that is more efficient will come into play in the future. 

The final pillar, which is important but out of the others is the least important is sustainability.  The aviation environment in the U.S. has grown to great lengths over the years and is in a pretty good place today.  It currently has the safest airspace system in the world, creates great economic benefits, and is one of the most reliable in the world.  Sustaining growth in the aviation world is important and it will grow at times but compared to the other pillars in the NextGen plan is perhaps less important.

User fees are a very sensitive topic for a good reason, no one wants to pay for more than their portion of what they think they should owe.  However everyone has different opinions of that as well.  Although user fees can be great for implementing the NextGen system it will drive costs up for customer's of the aviation industry.  A lot of people also fear that if a user fee is implemented with the airlines it could come down to general aviation in the future since they are use the NAS.  If this happens flight training costs will rise and it will be much more difficult for those not in the industry to get their certificates due to the increased cost.  I think that the fees should be implemented based on your distance traveled.  I believe that this creates a fair system that isn't based on how much fuel is burned or on a flat rate.  This system would be better than a flat rate because if there is a flight from DTW to LAX and a flight from DTW to CVG there are huge differences that cannot be done by a flat rate.  Additionally for different planes they will burn fuel at different rates which also creates an unfair disadvantage to some aircraft. 

NextGen is going to make the NAS a lot simpler and much more efficient.  Since I plan on continuing to fly in the future NextGen will drastically alter the way things will be run in the future.  Procedures, policies, management and operations will be more stream-line and more efficient with the full implementation of the plan. 

Retirement Age

The retirement age has recently been upped from 60 to 65 years old.  In a statement by the FAA following this rule change they stated that they welcome the legislation signed into law by the President that allows U.S. commercial pilots to fly until age 65. The determined efforts of Congress have averted a lengthy federal rule making process while enabling some of our nation’s most experienced pilots to continue flying.  The "Age 60 rule" had been in effect since 1959, when it required pilots to retire on their 60th birthday.  Since then, modern medicine has allowed for longer lives and better quality of life for those older citizens.
 

 The retirement limitations placed down by the FAA, although I understand their reasoning, safety, it seems that there are better methods and ways to determine if someone should retire.  One method could be through the AME during each pilot's medical's.  Or by use of one-on-one testing methods using FAA check airmen or designated examiners.  Especially since each person is very different and retirement should be a much more person by person basis. 

Who knows what the retirement age will be in the future by the time we get to that point in our lives.  It may be more of a testing requirement basis or something other than an age, only time will tell.  Hopefully it will be something more substantial than only an age however.

UAS integration in the NAS

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), or more accurately called today Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) have been developed in the military and are used heavily in war zones by the Department of Defense, according to the FAA website.  Not until recently did they venture into the general aviation part of the national airspace system (NAS).  The FAA has had to play a little bit of catch-up in order to stay up with these new demands.  They have has a lot of help from the interest group "Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International" (AUVSI).  The FAA has already streamlined the process for public agencies to fly safely in the NAS by use of the 2012 FAA re-authorization bill.  The FAA re-authorization bill mandates that UAS's are to be safely integrated into the NAS by 2015.  There have been a lot of recent interests to use UAS in other facets such as for customs and border patrol, and weather services or disaster area coverage that are of public usage. 

The UAS will be taking numerous roles in aviation that will certainly alter the landscape of general aviation in the U.S.  Can you imagine a UAS going into large storms and keeping track of exactly whats going on, or to have UAS patrolling the border and have a constant look out to protect the borders?  The UAS involvement in the NAS will force some procedures to change and safety standards are certainly going to be very high with this new technology entering the general aviation public.  A large focus of the FAA with the newest technology in the NAS is safety.  This should come as no surprise since this the main focus of the FAA.  UAS's will be required to be at least as safe as the rest of the general public while maintaining operations.  UAS's have successfully been able to use ADS-B, which is a cornerstone to the next gen system that is to be fully implemented by the year 2020. 

I think that UAS's will certainly take off and do some things publicly, however I also foresee any large accident or incident that occurs with a commercial flight to cause a lot of public distraught.  This can force either the FAA or if serious enough Congressional attention that can lead to another 1,500 total time rule being put through.  UAS's could certainly do a lot of good things for the aviation sector.  On the negative side they can cause some pilot's to lose jobs to UAS pilots.  The next five years are going to be very interesting for UAS's.  It will largely depend on how the implementation of the rules go for the FAA and the safety standards set forth by those using UAS's within the National Airspace System in the United States.

How does it affect myself?  Well UAS's will be altering the fabric of general aviation in the United States.  It might eventually alter things with commercial aviation, but I'm sure that will not be for a long time.  No matter how I approach my career I will have to find a job in the general aviation sector in order to build up hours to go after a position I want.  Although there are not a lot of operations currently under way in the Michigan, Ohio, or Indiana area where I will be trying to get a job, they very well could begin to have a lot of operations.  It depends on if any company finds a good use for them in our area.  If I get a position in Arizona, Florida, or Texas there are a lot of operations that could affect my operations.  I think the FAA will integrate UAS's into the NAS over time in an appropriate fashion and continue to correct any errors that occur in the process of integration.

China's GA Sector

According to Alexis Haakensen from the U.S. International Trade Administration there have been numerous U.S. based companies who have had Chinese investment include Epic Air, Teledyne Continental, and Cirrus. Chinese firms have also looked at acquiring Grob out of Germany, Piper, and Emivest.  AVIC, which is one of China's main aerospace firms believes that including foreign firms, especially from the U.S., will help Chinese aircraft more easily gain certification in the west, where most general aviation aircraft are currently sold. In late March 2012, Cessna announced that they are in discussions to form joint ventures to produce business jets in China. 

Cessna has specifically been working with the China Aviation Industry General Aircraft Company Ltd., (CAIGA) and the Shijiazhuang Municipal Government. This agreement has been progressing from the framework that Cessna entered into with CAIGA parent company, Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), in March 2012.  The current plan with this eventual joint venture will be the final assembly, sales, and customer support for the Cessna Caravan in China for the Chinese market.  It is difficult to see if there will be any ramifications for the US General Aviation sector.  For the time being it seems that all of the companies going into joint ventures with Chinese firms are continuing operations and retaining all of their employees.  Currently the relationships between companies are growing and beginning to build.  It is very interesting to see where these joint ventures will lead since these are brand new relationships.  Cessna is very excited about the current expansion in General Aviation in China, as you can tell by Cessna president and CEO Scott Ernest.  He states that: “We continue to be extremely pleased with the cooperative relationship between AVIC and Cessna. China’s potential in general aviation is tremendous, and represents an exciting opportunity for Cessna. Since we do expect China to be one of the largest general aviation markets in ten year’s time, we are excited to see that it will be Cessna aircraft that will help meet this demand in the years to come.”
 

But what has led to this rapid expansion in Chinese General Aviation? There has been continual growth in China and that has led to in 2010 China was the world's largest exporter in the world.  Along with the continual growth of their economy and the continued decay of Europe's economy, China has been able to step up to the table and begin making joint ventures with numerous foreign countries.  At the Asian Business Aviation Conference & Exhibition held in Shanghai from March 27 to 29 Chinese officials spoke about the plans for business and civil aviation in China.  Xia Xinghua, who is the deputy director of the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) spoke a lot of the changes that are being made for the infrastructure of China.  The Five-year plan includes to relax bans on low-altitude airspace, promote the development of the general aviation industry, reform the airspace management system and increase the efficiency of the allocation and utilization of airspace resources. 

As far as the impact that will be on the General Aviation sector in the U.S. it is currently unclear, however there is a lot of speculation that it will slowly decrease over time as numerous people will be heading to China.  This will be largely caused due to the need for a lot of general aviation jobs being created in China.  If the predictions of a great expansion in China's general aviation sector then there will be a tremendous need for professionals to assist in the growth, planning and execution of these new policies.  Although I feel there will be a slow decrease in U.S. general aviation, I feel that it will plateau eventually and although there will be a slightly less populous GA sector in the U.S. it will continue to make large contributions and flourish.

Comair's Closing

Comair started in 1977 in Cincinnati, Ohio by four friends with two Piper Navajo airplanes according to The New York Times.  Comair originally was operated for business travelers in Cincinnati to less populated areas around it in Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky and Pennsylvania.  This is why when Delta looked to expand from Atlanta to the North Comair was a great choice.  In 1984, Comair partnered with Delta when Delta bought approximately 10% of their company and became wholly owned by Delta in 2000. Comair only operated approximately 1% of Delta's operations and Delta has assured that there would not be a decrease in their flight schedule to Cincinnati.

Comair seized their operations as a decision sent down by Delta.  Delta has been moving toward using 76-seat aircraft as opposed to the 50-seaters that Comair largely operated.  This is a decision based on cost and efficiency and not about Comair's operations or quality, said Don Bornhorst, senior vice president of Delta Connection and a former Comair president.  There have been a few reasons for their downfall, which include their bankruptcy in 2005, the aging fleet, fuel inefficiency, and Delta's shift to use 76-seat planes rather than the 50-seat planes in order to increase their efficiency and better economical benefits. 

Overall I would say that the status of the regional's in not looking very good.  There have been numerous closures, and a lot of merging in the regional world.  As well as with Major airlines limiting service to a lot of smaller locations and only flying to and from major locations, which the major will mainly provide flights for.  I do not see many opportunities for regional airlines unless they simply break off their relationship to the majors.  This would be nearly, if not completely impossible for any regional airline to actually do.  This puts all regional airlines in a very difficult place that I think will eventually put them out of business all together. 

A regional airline that I researched that is currently hiring, according to Airline Pilot Central, is ExpressJet.  The starting pay for the first officer is $23 an hour with a guarantee of 75 hours a month.  This accumulated to $1,725 a month and in total about $20,700 pay for a year. 

Air Travel for everyone?

Following the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978 airline ticket prices plummeted due to competition.  Since then prices have continued to drop until they reached the low prices they are currently at.  Airlines have not always tended to the general public, in fact most of the flights airlines took mainly pampered to the upper class.  With gas prices continuing to rise and ticket prices lowering due to competition and websites such as expedia, orbitz, etc. has brought traveling via flying and driving to be approximately the same price.  Especially with airlines not selling that many of their own tickets and them rather being sold by internet sites, and other travel agents prices have continued to drop. 

I feel that flying should be slightly more expensive than driving to aid in the value to flying to the general public.  Although most of the general public should be able to fly in my opinion, I feel that it has largely lost its value and is now taken for granted and used without much gratitude.  This is why we need to increase the ticket prices slightly, in order to create a greater value of the ticket.  It seems that there is mostly criticism and not very much appreciation for the airline infrastructure in the United States.

If airlines raised their prices too dramatically then there would most likely be a lot of mergers, and numerous airlines would close down.  If there is only a slight increase in prices, less people would be able to afford trips via airlines however it would hopefully create more value and appreciation for air travel.  The industry would have fewer airlines to compete against each other, however the competition between those airlines would be greater.  Airlines could certainly use some help since numerous of the majors have been struggling and been forced to merge with other airlines or close down.  Some airlines have already begun to stop making trips to certain locations so frequently, or at all and this has helped them financially.  This strategy helps them combine trips and have generally more people per flight.  Limited scheduling also gives value to the ticket since it is only at certain times.  Although it is a good start to adding value to air travel, it needs to be worth more to the general public.

Aviation Safety Public Law

Public Law 111-216 was signed on August 1st, 2010 by President Obama, which makes me imagine what the FAA was thinking with how much work was ahead for them in a very short amount of time.  This public law alters things drastically for the entire airline industry as it changes requirements for airline crew members, self-reporting systems, and Safety Management Systems.  For crew members they must now have at least 1,500 flight hours, function effectively in a multipilot environment, function effectively in adverse weather conditions, including icing conditions, function effectively during high altitude operations, adhere to the highest professional standards and function effectively in an air carrier operational environment.  The self-reporting systems must be implemented for every 121 air carrier operations, and if a company has more than one then they must report how they differ and how each is beneficial to the company.  They must also be able to pull information for the Administrator and share data with them.  For the Safety Management Systems they must include all of the following items: An aviation safety action program, a flight operational quality assurance program, a line operations safety audit, and an advanced qualification program.  A lot of companies already have these implemented into their company however for those that do not, they will have a lot of difficulty in getting these systems set up with the short amount of time they have been provided.

Previous to this Public Law a person, such as myself, could build up hours by becoming a flight instructor, bush piloting, or some sort of other means and then move onto become a first officer for a regional airline approximately at 600-800 hours.  Now with the requirement changing to 1,500 total time the opportunity to get a flight instructor, bush pilot, or any other type of pilot job will be much more difficult.  We will now have to wait until those pilots in their positions can move up to what they want to do in the airline industry, while more and more pilots will have to wait for positions to become available.

This will add a degree of difficulty to the intro aviator as it will potentially cause a wait before you can get a job flying and then put you in a larger bind by not being able to pay back loans that had to be taken out to get through ratings.  This will be a struggle for flight schools to find people who want to go through a lot of training and testing and then not be able to get a job after all of that hard work and effort. 

Although this will give pilots coming into the airline industry more experience doing something like instructing, pipeline work, or something else when they come into the new job, it seems to be a very reactive response by those in Congress.  Flight hours are almost everything in order to simply get a job interview and although it is understandable to want more flight hours once someone starts flying a large jet there is a certain point where it becomes excessive.  If you have a pilot who gets about 1,250 flight hours by instructing, pipeline work, bush pilot work, most of which is done in a smaller aircraft; what is the benefit to have them wait longer to get into a jet?

In addition to what I have already stated, it seems like it will be very difficult for the FAA with the timelines that were given to them in this Public Law.  Rarely in the aviation industry does a law go in place in under a year, and in some instances in this Public Law the Administrator (FAA) is to give a final law notice no later than 12 months after the public law comes into effect.  Although it is possible for this to happen, there seems to be little respect for deliberation and altering rules to better fit the airline industry so that things can be the best for the industry and for airlines in general.  Without time and collaboration to come together with the best solution, something can be put in place that is detrimental to the airline industry.

Oil Speculation

Due to deregulation in the early 2000s oil speculation has driven oil prices up even when demand has decreased.  The way the system works is that buyers will place bids with sellers who agree to sell a certain amount of a commodity at a fixed price.  Once the contract is set the future buyer will receive the commodity for the previously dictated price in the future, even if the price is different at the time the buyer receives the commodity.

The commodity for airlines that is volatile for their operation is fuel.  Speculation makes it nearly impossible to make long-term plans for any airline.  The Air Transport Association, along with numerous others in the industry, is pushing regulators to bring in limitations on the financial speculators.  There is currently a bill in congress that would curb oil speculation and hopefully allow airlines to plan more accordingly.

If this bill is not passed then airlines and consumers alike will not be able to stay above water and make any profits.  If this continues it will be detrimental to the US airline industry altogether.  This legislation would not completely remove speculation however it would limit the amount that could be speculated from 45% to 20% of the market.  This would be huge for all airlines in profit margins by drastically decreasing fuel costs.

The deregulation caused things to inflate drastically and that is easily seen by looking at the price for gas prices, which in 2008 were averaged at $1.56 a gallon and now average over $3.60 a gallon.  Limitations on how much commodities can be speculated would put a slight strangle on the financial speculators, but would improve all other commodities that they are driving prices up for.  In order for this to be set up there will have to be a tighter control on financial speculators and limiting them.  If there are not currently people in place to do so then this will assist in job creation.

By decreasing the amount of speculation and helping airlines increase profits this will assist in job creation and job security. Airlines will be able to comfortably create more jobs or hire more people who have been laid off during the US economic recession.  By this occurring it will strengthen the infrastructure on the US airline environment. 

References Used:
McClatchy Newspapers
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/08/17/121047/how-financial-speculation-in-oil.html

ALPA White Paper
http://www.alpa.org/publications/ALPA_White_Paper_Leveling_the_Playing_Field_June_2012/ALPA_White_Paper_Leveling_the_Playing_Field_June_2012.html#section1-5

My Intro

Sometimes I reflect back on my life and wonder how things have happened and how I end up where I am today.  Flying is one of those things that I simply don't fully know how I got to where I am.  I'm not a person to say that I always knew that I wanted to fly, but I knew that I wanted to get out of Central Ohio and do something more with myself than just become a factory worker.  Unlike most of my friends out of high school who would stay at home and help out while going to a below-average college or a community college and then go to a dead-end job, or just go straight to a dead-end job.

I didn't even get on an airplane until I was 16, when my Cross Country team went on a trip to run in New York City.  I slept for most of the flight, but when we started to get close to La Guardia we over flew part of the city and came in to land over water.  It was one of the most amazing feelings I have ever had in my life.  From then on I knew that I wanted to do something with flying.  When I went to a college recruiting event at a local college I met a recruiter for the Eagle Flight Center, and he talked to me about the program and I was hooked to come to Eastern to learn to fly. 

I have no idea what my plans are in the future, other than the fact that I know I just want to fly.  I have no clue as to what capacity I want to fly, as in airline, corporate, flight instructor, cargo, bush, or even an astronaut.  All I know is that I am open to any opportunities that come my way, and I look forward to see what the future will hold.