NextGen System

The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) is basically a huge overhaul of the National Airspace System (NAS) and the way that it is manage, organized, and operated.  The NextGen has been partially implemented and is being added onto the NAS as it currently is.  The NextGen is built on four main foundations, which include the following: Economic Impact, Sustainability, Flexibility, and Safety.

To me the pillar that is most important would be Safety.  Safety for the reason that safety is and has always been the main mission of the FAA.  By them increasing what is already the safest air system in the world puts the U.S. even further ahead of the rest of the world.  If safety is not the main goal of NextGen, then it would be frivolous to implement it.  Safety should always be the top priority for every aviation company if it loses sight of that then it certainly will not succeed in the U.S.

The second pillar is the economic impact, which could arguably be the first pillar.  The aviation industry globally impacts the economic outlook for all countries.  The better the air traffic system, the better results for the economy.  According to the FAA civil aviation contributed $1.3 trillion annually to the economy, and accounted for 5.2% of the GDP for the U.S. in 2009.  NextGen is going to cut down on delays and create more efficient routes to take.  This will lead to a higher profit margin for any aviation company, as well as contribute more to the economy. 

The next pillar of NextGen is flexibility.  It is always important that when something is created it is susceptible to change  There are almost always unexpected consequences of something new that simply cannot be predicted without real-world testing.  NextGen needs to be flexible to adjust for any procedures or operations that end up being hazardous to the system. In addition to that, today the world changes really fast and especially technology.  Although NextGen is much more advanced than anything put in place for the NAS thus far, it is highly likely that an even more advanced technology that is more efficient will come into play in the future. 

The final pillar, which is important but out of the others is the least important is sustainability.  The aviation environment in the U.S. has grown to great lengths over the years and is in a pretty good place today.  It currently has the safest airspace system in the world, creates great economic benefits, and is one of the most reliable in the world.  Sustaining growth in the aviation world is important and it will grow at times but compared to the other pillars in the NextGen plan is perhaps less important.

User fees are a very sensitive topic for a good reason, no one wants to pay for more than their portion of what they think they should owe.  However everyone has different opinions of that as well.  Although user fees can be great for implementing the NextGen system it will drive costs up for customer's of the aviation industry.  A lot of people also fear that if a user fee is implemented with the airlines it could come down to general aviation in the future since they are use the NAS.  If this happens flight training costs will rise and it will be much more difficult for those not in the industry to get their certificates due to the increased cost.  I think that the fees should be implemented based on your distance traveled.  I believe that this creates a fair system that isn't based on how much fuel is burned or on a flat rate.  This system would be better than a flat rate because if there is a flight from DTW to LAX and a flight from DTW to CVG there are huge differences that cannot be done by a flat rate.  Additionally for different planes they will burn fuel at different rates which also creates an unfair disadvantage to some aircraft. 

NextGen is going to make the NAS a lot simpler and much more efficient.  Since I plan on continuing to fly in the future NextGen will drastically alter the way things will be run in the future.  Procedures, policies, management and operations will be more stream-line and more efficient with the full implementation of the plan. 

Retirement Age

The retirement age has recently been upped from 60 to 65 years old.  In a statement by the FAA following this rule change they stated that they welcome the legislation signed into law by the President that allows U.S. commercial pilots to fly until age 65. The determined efforts of Congress have averted a lengthy federal rule making process while enabling some of our nation’s most experienced pilots to continue flying.  The "Age 60 rule" had been in effect since 1959, when it required pilots to retire on their 60th birthday.  Since then, modern medicine has allowed for longer lives and better quality of life for those older citizens.
 

 The retirement limitations placed down by the FAA, although I understand their reasoning, safety, it seems that there are better methods and ways to determine if someone should retire.  One method could be through the AME during each pilot's medical's.  Or by use of one-on-one testing methods using FAA check airmen or designated examiners.  Especially since each person is very different and retirement should be a much more person by person basis. 

Who knows what the retirement age will be in the future by the time we get to that point in our lives.  It may be more of a testing requirement basis or something other than an age, only time will tell.  Hopefully it will be something more substantial than only an age however.

UAS integration in the NAS

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), or more accurately called today Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) have been developed in the military and are used heavily in war zones by the Department of Defense, according to the FAA website.  Not until recently did they venture into the general aviation part of the national airspace system (NAS).  The FAA has had to play a little bit of catch-up in order to stay up with these new demands.  They have has a lot of help from the interest group "Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International" (AUVSI).  The FAA has already streamlined the process for public agencies to fly safely in the NAS by use of the 2012 FAA re-authorization bill.  The FAA re-authorization bill mandates that UAS's are to be safely integrated into the NAS by 2015.  There have been a lot of recent interests to use UAS in other facets such as for customs and border patrol, and weather services or disaster area coverage that are of public usage. 

The UAS will be taking numerous roles in aviation that will certainly alter the landscape of general aviation in the U.S.  Can you imagine a UAS going into large storms and keeping track of exactly whats going on, or to have UAS patrolling the border and have a constant look out to protect the borders?  The UAS involvement in the NAS will force some procedures to change and safety standards are certainly going to be very high with this new technology entering the general aviation public.  A large focus of the FAA with the newest technology in the NAS is safety.  This should come as no surprise since this the main focus of the FAA.  UAS's will be required to be at least as safe as the rest of the general public while maintaining operations.  UAS's have successfully been able to use ADS-B, which is a cornerstone to the next gen system that is to be fully implemented by the year 2020. 

I think that UAS's will certainly take off and do some things publicly, however I also foresee any large accident or incident that occurs with a commercial flight to cause a lot of public distraught.  This can force either the FAA or if serious enough Congressional attention that can lead to another 1,500 total time rule being put through.  UAS's could certainly do a lot of good things for the aviation sector.  On the negative side they can cause some pilot's to lose jobs to UAS pilots.  The next five years are going to be very interesting for UAS's.  It will largely depend on how the implementation of the rules go for the FAA and the safety standards set forth by those using UAS's within the National Airspace System in the United States.

How does it affect myself?  Well UAS's will be altering the fabric of general aviation in the United States.  It might eventually alter things with commercial aviation, but I'm sure that will not be for a long time.  No matter how I approach my career I will have to find a job in the general aviation sector in order to build up hours to go after a position I want.  Although there are not a lot of operations currently under way in the Michigan, Ohio, or Indiana area where I will be trying to get a job, they very well could begin to have a lot of operations.  It depends on if any company finds a good use for them in our area.  If I get a position in Arizona, Florida, or Texas there are a lot of operations that could affect my operations.  I think the FAA will integrate UAS's into the NAS over time in an appropriate fashion and continue to correct any errors that occur in the process of integration.

China's GA Sector

According to Alexis Haakensen from the U.S. International Trade Administration there have been numerous U.S. based companies who have had Chinese investment include Epic Air, Teledyne Continental, and Cirrus. Chinese firms have also looked at acquiring Grob out of Germany, Piper, and Emivest.  AVIC, which is one of China's main aerospace firms believes that including foreign firms, especially from the U.S., will help Chinese aircraft more easily gain certification in the west, where most general aviation aircraft are currently sold. In late March 2012, Cessna announced that they are in discussions to form joint ventures to produce business jets in China. 

Cessna has specifically been working with the China Aviation Industry General Aircraft Company Ltd., (CAIGA) and the Shijiazhuang Municipal Government. This agreement has been progressing from the framework that Cessna entered into with CAIGA parent company, Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), in March 2012.  The current plan with this eventual joint venture will be the final assembly, sales, and customer support for the Cessna Caravan in China for the Chinese market.  It is difficult to see if there will be any ramifications for the US General Aviation sector.  For the time being it seems that all of the companies going into joint ventures with Chinese firms are continuing operations and retaining all of their employees.  Currently the relationships between companies are growing and beginning to build.  It is very interesting to see where these joint ventures will lead since these are brand new relationships.  Cessna is very excited about the current expansion in General Aviation in China, as you can tell by Cessna president and CEO Scott Ernest.  He states that: “We continue to be extremely pleased with the cooperative relationship between AVIC and Cessna. China’s potential in general aviation is tremendous, and represents an exciting opportunity for Cessna. Since we do expect China to be one of the largest general aviation markets in ten year’s time, we are excited to see that it will be Cessna aircraft that will help meet this demand in the years to come.”
 

But what has led to this rapid expansion in Chinese General Aviation? There has been continual growth in China and that has led to in 2010 China was the world's largest exporter in the world.  Along with the continual growth of their economy and the continued decay of Europe's economy, China has been able to step up to the table and begin making joint ventures with numerous foreign countries.  At the Asian Business Aviation Conference & Exhibition held in Shanghai from March 27 to 29 Chinese officials spoke about the plans for business and civil aviation in China.  Xia Xinghua, who is the deputy director of the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) spoke a lot of the changes that are being made for the infrastructure of China.  The Five-year plan includes to relax bans on low-altitude airspace, promote the development of the general aviation industry, reform the airspace management system and increase the efficiency of the allocation and utilization of airspace resources. 

As far as the impact that will be on the General Aviation sector in the U.S. it is currently unclear, however there is a lot of speculation that it will slowly decrease over time as numerous people will be heading to China.  This will be largely caused due to the need for a lot of general aviation jobs being created in China.  If the predictions of a great expansion in China's general aviation sector then there will be a tremendous need for professionals to assist in the growth, planning and execution of these new policies.  Although I feel there will be a slow decrease in U.S. general aviation, I feel that it will plateau eventually and although there will be a slightly less populous GA sector in the U.S. it will continue to make large contributions and flourish.

Comair's Closing

Comair started in 1977 in Cincinnati, Ohio by four friends with two Piper Navajo airplanes according to The New York Times.  Comair originally was operated for business travelers in Cincinnati to less populated areas around it in Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky and Pennsylvania.  This is why when Delta looked to expand from Atlanta to the North Comair was a great choice.  In 1984, Comair partnered with Delta when Delta bought approximately 10% of their company and became wholly owned by Delta in 2000. Comair only operated approximately 1% of Delta's operations and Delta has assured that there would not be a decrease in their flight schedule to Cincinnati.

Comair seized their operations as a decision sent down by Delta.  Delta has been moving toward using 76-seat aircraft as opposed to the 50-seaters that Comair largely operated.  This is a decision based on cost and efficiency and not about Comair's operations or quality, said Don Bornhorst, senior vice president of Delta Connection and a former Comair president.  There have been a few reasons for their downfall, which include their bankruptcy in 2005, the aging fleet, fuel inefficiency, and Delta's shift to use 76-seat planes rather than the 50-seat planes in order to increase their efficiency and better economical benefits. 

Overall I would say that the status of the regional's in not looking very good.  There have been numerous closures, and a lot of merging in the regional world.  As well as with Major airlines limiting service to a lot of smaller locations and only flying to and from major locations, which the major will mainly provide flights for.  I do not see many opportunities for regional airlines unless they simply break off their relationship to the majors.  This would be nearly, if not completely impossible for any regional airline to actually do.  This puts all regional airlines in a very difficult place that I think will eventually put them out of business all together. 

A regional airline that I researched that is currently hiring, according to Airline Pilot Central, is ExpressJet.  The starting pay for the first officer is $23 an hour with a guarantee of 75 hours a month.  This accumulated to $1,725 a month and in total about $20,700 pay for a year. 

Air Travel for everyone?

Following the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978 airline ticket prices plummeted due to competition.  Since then prices have continued to drop until they reached the low prices they are currently at.  Airlines have not always tended to the general public, in fact most of the flights airlines took mainly pampered to the upper class.  With gas prices continuing to rise and ticket prices lowering due to competition and websites such as expedia, orbitz, etc. has brought traveling via flying and driving to be approximately the same price.  Especially with airlines not selling that many of their own tickets and them rather being sold by internet sites, and other travel agents prices have continued to drop. 

I feel that flying should be slightly more expensive than driving to aid in the value to flying to the general public.  Although most of the general public should be able to fly in my opinion, I feel that it has largely lost its value and is now taken for granted and used without much gratitude.  This is why we need to increase the ticket prices slightly, in order to create a greater value of the ticket.  It seems that there is mostly criticism and not very much appreciation for the airline infrastructure in the United States.

If airlines raised their prices too dramatically then there would most likely be a lot of mergers, and numerous airlines would close down.  If there is only a slight increase in prices, less people would be able to afford trips via airlines however it would hopefully create more value and appreciation for air travel.  The industry would have fewer airlines to compete against each other, however the competition between those airlines would be greater.  Airlines could certainly use some help since numerous of the majors have been struggling and been forced to merge with other airlines or close down.  Some airlines have already begun to stop making trips to certain locations so frequently, or at all and this has helped them financially.  This strategy helps them combine trips and have generally more people per flight.  Limited scheduling also gives value to the ticket since it is only at certain times.  Although it is a good start to adding value to air travel, it needs to be worth more to the general public.

Aviation Safety Public Law

Public Law 111-216 was signed on August 1st, 2010 by President Obama, which makes me imagine what the FAA was thinking with how much work was ahead for them in a very short amount of time.  This public law alters things drastically for the entire airline industry as it changes requirements for airline crew members, self-reporting systems, and Safety Management Systems.  For crew members they must now have at least 1,500 flight hours, function effectively in a multipilot environment, function effectively in adverse weather conditions, including icing conditions, function effectively during high altitude operations, adhere to the highest professional standards and function effectively in an air carrier operational environment.  The self-reporting systems must be implemented for every 121 air carrier operations, and if a company has more than one then they must report how they differ and how each is beneficial to the company.  They must also be able to pull information for the Administrator and share data with them.  For the Safety Management Systems they must include all of the following items: An aviation safety action program, a flight operational quality assurance program, a line operations safety audit, and an advanced qualification program.  A lot of companies already have these implemented into their company however for those that do not, they will have a lot of difficulty in getting these systems set up with the short amount of time they have been provided.

Previous to this Public Law a person, such as myself, could build up hours by becoming a flight instructor, bush piloting, or some sort of other means and then move onto become a first officer for a regional airline approximately at 600-800 hours.  Now with the requirement changing to 1,500 total time the opportunity to get a flight instructor, bush pilot, or any other type of pilot job will be much more difficult.  We will now have to wait until those pilots in their positions can move up to what they want to do in the airline industry, while more and more pilots will have to wait for positions to become available.

This will add a degree of difficulty to the intro aviator as it will potentially cause a wait before you can get a job flying and then put you in a larger bind by not being able to pay back loans that had to be taken out to get through ratings.  This will be a struggle for flight schools to find people who want to go through a lot of training and testing and then not be able to get a job after all of that hard work and effort. 

Although this will give pilots coming into the airline industry more experience doing something like instructing, pipeline work, or something else when they come into the new job, it seems to be a very reactive response by those in Congress.  Flight hours are almost everything in order to simply get a job interview and although it is understandable to want more flight hours once someone starts flying a large jet there is a certain point where it becomes excessive.  If you have a pilot who gets about 1,250 flight hours by instructing, pipeline work, bush pilot work, most of which is done in a smaller aircraft; what is the benefit to have them wait longer to get into a jet?

In addition to what I have already stated, it seems like it will be very difficult for the FAA with the timelines that were given to them in this Public Law.  Rarely in the aviation industry does a law go in place in under a year, and in some instances in this Public Law the Administrator (FAA) is to give a final law notice no later than 12 months after the public law comes into effect.  Although it is possible for this to happen, there seems to be little respect for deliberation and altering rules to better fit the airline industry so that things can be the best for the industry and for airlines in general.  Without time and collaboration to come together with the best solution, something can be put in place that is detrimental to the airline industry.